#46 - Margins under pressure, slower suppliers, AI held back by data, rising CBAM costs

Today we look at:

• European manufacturing growing again while costs accelerate,
• Italy climbing back above 50 points, but with slower suppliers,
• why AI agents in Procurement deliver less than they promise,
• and the new price of CBAM certificates

Four signals pointing in the same direction: pressure is coming from the purchasing side, and those with their data in order notice it first.

Orders accelerate, but costs are rising again too

Eurozone manufacturing closed September in expansion. The S&P Global PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index, the monthly survey of purchasing managers that anticipates the sector's trend) stands at 52.9 points in the final reading of October 1, above the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction, slightly up from 52.7 in August and the highest level since May 2022. Output is growing at the fastest pace in 55 months, with all eight monitored countries expanding.

The flip side is costs. In September, input prices and selling prices accelerated for the first time since May, though they remain below the peaks reached at the start of the year. Businesses are more confident (confidence is at a seven-month high) and are hiring again, but every extra order arrives with more expensive raw materials, energy and transport.

For a manufacturing company this combination weighs more than for a large group: thinner margins, fewer people to renegotiate with suppliers, the same wave of price increases. When demand holds and costs rise, the advantage goes to those who turn a need into a well-made purchase faster and see sooner where prices are about to move.

Before AI, data: what holds back agents in Procurement

According to BCG's modeling, a procurement function redesigned around AI agents can free up about 60% of buyer capacity, cut costs by 8-15% and speed up sourcing by 30-60%. BCG sets a clear condition, though: these results come only from rethinking the whole flow, from sourcing to payment, around agents. Adding an AI assistant to existing processes improves the work but does not transform it, and today companies capture only a fraction of the value.

A very concrete brake concerns data. A study by World Commerce & Contracting (WorldCC), conducted between February and April 2026 on 170 organizations, shows the starting point in contract management:

• in Europe and Oceania, 38% of organizations have contracts scattered across multiple repositories;
• 54% have no automatic data flow between systems;
• only 9% have two-way synchronization that keeps data up to date across platforms.

For a manufacturing company the point is practical. An agent that sends reminders, order confirmations or requests for quotation works on master data, contract terms and item codes. If the data is scattered or out of date, the agent does not repair it: it risks making mistakes faster.

Italy climbs back above 50 points, but only thanks to employment and slower suppliers

In September, Italy's manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) returns above the growth threshold: 50.4 points versus 49.6 in August, above expectations. It remains, however, the lowest reading among the four large eurozone economies.

The return above 50 must be read in the composition of the index. New orders and output fell at a modest pace, with weak demand both in Italy and abroad. The index is supported by employment, up slightly, and by supplier delivery times, which lengthened again markedly, even if the deterioration is the least strong since February. In the PMI calculation slower deliveries count positively, because they usually signal strong demand; in September they mainly describe a slower supply chain, with logistics problems and shortages of key inputs, including electronics.

Meanwhile input costs grew at the fastest pace of the third quarter, driven by raw materials, energy, fuel and transport, while selling prices rose at the slowest pace in three months. The gap between costs and prices is widening, and the pressure falls on purchasing.

CBAM: the carbon price rises to 82.32 euros for the third quarter

On October 5 the European Commission published the CBAM certificate price for the third quarter of 2026. CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) is the mechanism that applies to imports of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers, hydrogen and electricity a carbon cost aligned with that borne by European producers. The new price is 82.32 euros per tonne of CO₂ equivalent, up 9.4% from 75.28 euros in the second quarter (75.36 euros in the first). The value is the weighted average of the auction clearing prices of ETS permits (Emissions Trading System, the European emissions market) in the quarter.

The calendar makes the figure already operational. Since January 1, 2026, CBAM has entered its definitive phase: those who import more than 50 tonnes a year of covered goods fall under the obligations, and the emissions embedded in 2026 imports must be declared, with the corresponding certificates surrendered, by September 30, 2027. Certificate purchases start in February 2027. Every quarter of purchases made this year therefore carries a carbon cost that enters the total cost.

According to the assessment published by the Commission on September 30, in the period between April 2025 and March 2026 the 50-tonne threshold left out 0.87% of embedded emissions, below the 1% limit set by the regulation. Those who occasionally import small quantities remain excluded; those who regularly buy semi-finished steel or aluminium products from outside Europe would do well to check their position.

The signals point the same way: costs are rising from several sides, from slower suppliers to carbon entering the price of imports. The technology to withstand this pressure exists, but it delivers only as much as the data it works on. A concrete goal for this autumn is not so much to choose the “right” tool, but to put in order the contracts, master data and deadlines the tool will have to run on.